{
  "title": "EV–005 illustrative underwriting sensitivities",
  "version": "1.0",
  "as_of": "2026-09-06",
  "provenance": "All financial inputs are explicit Engineer View illustrative assumptions. No inputs are supplier quotes, market estimates, or data from Blackstone.",
  "limitations": [
    "Annual steady-state sensitivity; no construction draw schedule, taxes, working capital, amortization, fees, replacement event, terminal value, or refinancing modeled.",
    "Debt is interest-only. Coverage is pre-tax cash interest coverage, not lender-defined DSCR.",
    "Billing fraction is income-bearing contracted IT capacity, not server utilization. Power reimbursements and associated expense are excluded from revenue and cash margin.",
    "Delay interest assumes the entire stated debt balance is already drawn, no operating receipts, simple interest, and no offsetting delay recovery.",
    "PV reduction shifts every future cash flow by the stated delay without changing its amount or lifespan. It is not an equity loss estimate. Do not add it to interest carry.",
    "Scenarios have no assigned probabilities. Cash margins are scenario assumptions, not a fixed/variable cost model."
  ],
  "common": {
    "it_capacity_mw": 100,
    "project_cost_usd_m": 800,
    "debt_usd_m": 480,
    "discount_rate": 0.1
  },
  "scenarios": [
    {
      "name": "Reference",
      "billable_fraction": 0.9,
      "rent_usd_per_kw_month": 140,
      "operating_cash_margin": 0.65,
      "sustaining_capex_usd_m": 8,
      "debt_coupon": 0.07,
      "revenue_usd_m": 151.20000000000002,
      "operating_cash_before_tax_and_debt_usd_m": 90.28000000000002,
      "interest_usd_m": 33.6,
      "pretax_cash_interest_coverage": 2.686904761904762,
      "interest_breakeven_billable_fraction": 0.38095238095238093
    },
    {
      "name": "Slower lease-up",
      "billable_fraction": 0.7,
      "rent_usd_per_kw_month": 126,
      "operating_cash_margin": 0.6,
      "sustaining_capex_usd_m": 8,
      "debt_coupon": 0.08,
      "revenue_usd_m": 105.83999999999999,
      "operating_cash_before_tax_and_debt_usd_m": 55.50399999999999,
      "interest_usd_m": 38.4,
      "pretax_cash_interest_coverage": 1.4454166666666666,
      "interest_breakeven_billable_fraction": 0.5114638447971782
    },
    {
      "name": "Combined downside",
      "billable_fraction": 0.5,
      "rent_usd_per_kw_month": 112,
      "operating_cash_margin": 0.55,
      "sustaining_capex_usd_m": 10,
      "debt_coupon": 0.09,
      "revenue_usd_m": 67.2,
      "operating_cash_before_tax_and_debt_usd_m": 26.960000000000008,
      "interest_usd_m": 43.199999999999996,
      "pretax_cash_interest_coverage": 0.6240740740740743,
      "interest_breakeven_billable_fraction": 0.7196969696969695
    }
  ],
  "delays": [
    {
      "months": 6,
      "simple_incremental_interest_usd_m": 16.8,
      "cashflow_time_shift_pv_reduction": 0.04653741075440776
    },
    {
      "months": 12,
      "simple_incremental_interest_usd_m": 33.6,
      "cashflow_time_shift_pv_reduction": 0.09090909090909094
    },
    {
      "months": 24,
      "simple_incremental_interest_usd_m": 67.2,
      "cashflow_time_shift_pv_reduction": 0.17355371900826455
    }
  ],
  "equations": {
    "annual_rental_revenue_usd_m": "IT MW × 1,000 × billing fraction × $/kW-month × 12 ÷ 1,000,000",
    "cash_before_tax_and_debt_usd_m": "Revenue × operating cash margin − sustaining capex",
    "interest_usd_m": "Debt × annual coupon",
    "pretax_cash_interest_coverage": "Cash before tax and debt ÷ cash interest",
    "breakeven_billing_fraction": "(Interest + sustaining capex) ÷ (full-capacity rental revenue × margin)",
    "pv_time_shift_reduction": "1 − (1 + discount rate)^(−delay months / 12)"
  }
}